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The projection was made by multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, before counties began counting absentee and affidavit ballots this week. 

Williams, R-Sennett, has a 4,020-vote lead over Conole, D-Syracuse, in the 22nd district, which includes all of Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties and a small portion of Oswego County. Williams' lead grew by nearly 100 votes on Monday after Oneida County amended its election night count. 

Even before the additional votes were counted, Conole faced long odds in his comeback attempt. While there were 8,402 absentee ballots sent to voters in the 22nd district, more than 2,700 ballots were not returned in Onondaga County, the district's largest county.

Onondaga reported that it will scan 2,254 absentee ballots. About half were submitted by Democratic voters, but there are 520 Republican ballots and 630 from other voters that will be counted. 

That hurts Conole because he won Onondaga County by 11 points on Election Day. While his lead there could grow, it won't be enough overtake Williams. 

The key to Williams' win in the 22nd district was his performance in Madison and Oneida counties. He won Oneida County by 24 points and Madison County by 17 points. His margin of victory in Oneida was enough to negate Conole's advantage in Onondaga. 

Williams released a statement on Tuesday thanking election officials for ensuring that every vote is counted. 

"As the dust from Election Day settles, we are not merely Republicans and Democrats — we are united as central New Yorkers," he said. I look forward to representing each of our district's constituents regardless of your party. Together we can restore the economy, attract jobs, and empower communities to reduce crime." 

Williams also praised Conole for "running a strong, impassioned race." Conole has not conceded. He said on election night that it was too close to call. 

When the Associated Press and other national news outlets projected Williams as the winner, he was in Washington, D.C., for new member orientation. 

Williams will succeed retiring U.S. Rep. John Katko, a Republican who declined to seek reelection after serving four terms in Congress.